New methods for robust science and technology planning

by Robert J. Lempert

RAND researchers have conducted a successful proof-of-concept demonstration for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of two new methods for science and technology (S & T) planning. These methods--HyperForum, a facilitated Web-based collaborative exercise, conducted in a carefully crafted, information-rich, online environment, and Exploratory Modeling, a new approach to generating systematic, quantitative comparisons among alternative policy decisions without relying on imperfect predictions of the future--exploit new information technologies in order to : improve the quality of the S & T planning process by using online computer-assisted decision-support tools that (1) make relevant information more easily available to expert panelists meeting over the World Wide Web, and (2) help panelists include and compensate for the effects of uncertainty by treating an S & T plan as a portfolio of technology investments hedged against a wide range of plausible futures; provide a